Keynote lecture by Solveig Engebretsen, Norwegian Computing Center |

Keynote lecture by Solveig Engebretsen, Norwegian Computing Center


Spatial modelling of COVID-19 in Norway

Keynote lecture by Solveig Engebretsen, Norwegian Computing Center

Tuesday November 3rd at 13.15-14.15. Link provided to participants.

Abstract

In this talk, we will present the model that the Norwegian Institute of Public Health has been using for situational awareness and forecasting of COVID-19 in Norway. The model is informed by real-time mobile phone mobility data and seeded with imported cases from abroad. We use the model to estimate the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Norway, by fitting to hospital incidence by approximate Bayesian computation. The estimated parameters are used to predict the short-term number of individuals requiring hospitalisation and intensive care treatment. By comparing the reproduction number when different restrictions were in place, we can assess the effect of the interventions.